Effects of Future Climate Change on Spring Maize Yield and Water Use Efficiency under Film Mulching with Different Materials in the LOESS Plateau Region of China

Background: Traditional polyethylene film mulching is widely used in the Loess Plateau region of China to improve crop yields. However, whether long-term can continue ensure yield under future climate change conditions questionable. First, we conducted a four-year field experiment calibrate and validate biogeochemical DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model. Then, based on calibrated validated model, evaluated spring maize water use efficiency different methods (no mulching, traditional biodegradable mulching) region. Results: The temperature rainfall are predicted increase (2021–2100) four scenarios due higher CO2 concentrations. Through 252 simulation results, found that will have positive impacts no degradable conditions. be greater with but future, reduce Additionally, reduction greater. A sensitivity analysis indicated major effect yield, rainfall. As increases, differences between ordinary plastic become smaller. In later period warmer wetter SSP585 scenario, than mulching. Conclusion: It seen more adaptable future.